Recently, we have seen a noticeably lower popularity of heat pumps in the Polish heating market. This decline may come as a strong surprise, since as recently as 2022 heat pumps were one of the most popular and frequently chosen heating solutions by Poles.
We appreciated them primarily for:
– energy efficiency and low operating costs; they use relatively little electricity,
– long service life; they provide up to 30 years of trouble-free operation,
– ease of installation and convenience of use; they are virtually maintenance-free,
– multifunctionality; they can replace air conditioning,
– safety; they do not pose a fire hazard or a risk of suffocation,
– ecology; they use renewable energy sources and do not emit pollutants.
Despite all these undeniable advantages, at the beginning of 2023, sales of heat pumps had fallen exponentially, by as much as 40% compared to the previous year. Interest in them dropped from 36% to 20%. This is quite a lot.
Analyzing the reasons for this unexpected phenomenon, there are two key factors.
First, electricity prices have risen, which has noticeably affected the cost-effectiveness and thus the popularity of heat pumps. The government’s freezing of electricity rates to 1,500 kWh proved insufficient for heat pump owners, whose annual electricity consumption was, after all, significantly higher.
Secondly, the overall image, and therefore the popularity of heat pumps, was very negatively affected by the flooding of the market with devices without the appropriate certificates, which inflated performance parameters. Installations took place on a massive scale, which sometimes reflected on the quality of the installation service. Consumers felt cheated, which strained their confidence in this heating solution.
In response to this situation, Poles quickly began to look for alternative solutions – cheap and proven. In this wave, there was a noticeable increase in interest in gas boilers and biomass boilers (according to data from the Polish Economic Chamber of Coal Dealers). Their popularity compared to the previous heating season increased from 31% to 37% and from 10% to 15%, respectively.
It seems, however, that the choice of these traditional heat sources may be beneficial only in the short term, given the EU regulations coming soon.
As of 2027, the installation of gas boilers in new homes may be banned, and as of 2030, their use in property upgrades may also be banned.
EU regulations are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency. This is all about environmental compulsion – changes are necessary if we want to avoid a climate catastrophe.
That’s why member states have been obliged to phase out boilers powered by fossil fuels. In Poland, according to the guidelines of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NERP), from the beginning of 2030 all new buildings are to be emission-free. In practice, this means banning the use of gas-fired boilers or coal stoves.
These transitions are part of a broader European Union effort oriented toward promoting zero-emission technologies and thermal retrofitting of existing buildings.
Therefore, despite the current difficulties and sales downtime, the heat pump industry is not at all at a loss. On the contrary, in the near future it can expect stabilization and probably even development. Especially if tariff changes are made and the aforementioned EU regulations are implemented. The attractiveness and popularity of heat pumps will most likely return.
However, the industry should learn from previous difficulties and ensure the wide availability of quality, certified equipment. It will also be important here to emphasize reliable training programs for installers of modern heat pumps, so that this solution will not disappoint at any stage (installation, operation) and will become the gold (high) standard in the heating of a better climate tomorrow.